Looking to the Futures

Crude oil futures (/CL) prices fell on Thursday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its oil demand outlook for the year.  

In its latest monthly report, the IEA cut its demand outlook to 1.1 million barrels per day year-over-year in 2026, down 700,000 barrels per day from its previous estimate. 

However, the IEA also noted that global oil supply fell to 94.5 million barrels per day in May, down 600,000 barrels per day month-on-month.

In its Weekly Petroleum Status Report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude oil stockpiles declined by 8.3-million barrels during the week ending June 12. This was above expectations for a 4.6-million barrel storage draw.

Oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, stood at 418.2 million barrels, 6% below the five-year average.

U.S. oil production rose by 7,000 barrels per day last week, averaging 13.806 million barrels per day. This was 375,000 barrels per day higher than one year ago.

On the oil product side, distillate inventories 1ncreased by 1-million barrels, which was contrary to expectations for a 500,000 barrel draw. Distillate inventories are now 13% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Gasoline inventories declined by 900,000 barrels, which was slightly below expectations for a 1-million barrel draw. These stockpiles are now 6% below the five-year average.

EIA said gasoline production increased from the previous week and averaged 10.1-million barrels per day. Distillate production declined last week, averaging 5.2-million barrels per day.

The agency also reported that U.S. ethanol production declined last week, averaging 1.102 million barrels per day. Expectations were for a decline to 1.105 million barrels per day.

U.S. ethanol inventories were unchanged at 24.5 million barrels last week. Traders were expecting inventories of 24.2 million barrels.

Digging further into the EIA report, refinery utilization increased by 1.4 percentage points to 96.7% last week. Expectations were for an increase to 96%. U.S. gasoline demand increased by 481,000 barrels per day to 9.212 million barrels per day. Distillate demand fell last week, declining by 205,000 barrels per day to 3.659 million barrels per day.

Oil storage in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the WTI Crude Oil futures (/CL) contract, fell by 1.6-million barrels last week to 20-million barrels.

The U.S. crude oil rig count rose by two last week to 433 rigs during the reporting period ending June 12. That is down 1.4% from a year ago according to energy services firm Baker Hughes’ North American Rotary Rig Count report.

U.S. stock index futures were mixed early this morning, with the Nasdaq-100® (+0.10%), the Dow Jones Industrial Average® (+0.02%), and the Russell 2000® (+0.17%) higher, but the S&P 500® (–0.10%), trading lower. 

In Asia, major indexes closed mixed, with the Shanghai (+1,78%) and the Nikkei (+1.55%) higher, but the Hang Seng (–0.65%) lower. 

In Europe, markets were mixed by midday, with the FTSE (+0.41%) trading higher, but the DAX (–0.10%) and the CAC (–0.50%) posting losses. 

Natural gas futures (/NGN26) ended Friday’s session higher (+2.80%), supported by a lower than expected storage build during the last reporting period. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. natural gas inventories increased by 73 billion cubic feet (Bcf) during the week ending June 12. That was below expectations for a 75 Bcf storage build. U.S. gas inventories are currently 5.8% above the five-year average and 1% below year-ago levels.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center expects temperatures from June 25 through July 1 to range from near normal to above normal across most of the Lower 48. Below-normal temperatures are expected across Iowa and parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri, and Kansas during the period.

Corn futures (/ZCZ26) ended Thursday’s session lower (–1.06%) as favorable weather across much of the Corn Belt left grain traders hesitant to price in a weather “risk premium” for new-crop futures.

Gold futures (/GCQ26) finished Thursday’s session lower (–3.09%) as strength in the U.S. Dollar Index, which climbed to more than one-year highs, weighed on precious metals.

Major economic reports, trading events, and news items that could potentially impact specific futures markets:

Futures First Notice Day: July Coffee

Futures Last Trading Day: July Crude Oil

3-and 6-month T-bills 

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is expected to speak today. 

New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms: 

• Ripple (/XRP)
• Micro Ripple (/MXP)
• 100 OZ Silver (/SIC)
• 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
• Solana (/SOL)
• Micro Solana (/MSL)

Visit the Schwab.com Futures Markets page to explore the wide variety of futures contracts available for trading through Charles Schwab Futures and Forex LLC.