Looking to the Futures

Crude oil futures (/CL) slipped Friday, with the front-month WTI contract falling back below $100 per barrel and touching one-week lows as traders pared back geopolitical-risk premiums. The pullback came as reports suggested Saudi Arabia could restore part of its damaged East-West pipeline capacity within days, easing fears of a longer supply disruption. Prices also faced pressure from the latest EIA data, which showed a smaller-than-expected crude inventory draw while gasoline and distillate supplies increased, weakening the bullish supply story. Even with Middle East shipping risks still in focus, Friday’s move highlighted how quickly crude can reverse when disruption fears fade and traders take profits after a sharp rally.

In its Weekly Petroleum Status Report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude oil stockpiles declined by 600,000 barrels during the week ending September 11. This was below expectations for a 1.6-million-barrel storage draw.

Oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, stood at 423.4 million barrels, 1% above the five-year average.

U.S. oil production fell by 3,000 barrels per day last week, averaging 13.944 million barrels per day. This was 462,000 barrels per day higher than one year ago.

On the oil product side, distillate inventories increased by 1.6-million barrels, which was above expectations for a 100,000-barrel build. Distillate inventories are now 13% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Gasoline inventories increased by 800,000 barrels, which was contrary to expectations for a 1-million-barrel draw. These stockpiles are now 5% below the five-year average.

EIA said gasoline production increased from the previous week and averaged 9.6-million barrels per day. Distillate production decreased last week, averaging 5.2-million barrels per day.

The agency also reported that U.S. ethanol production remained steady last week, averaging 1.099 million barrels per day. Expectations were for a decline to 1.097 million barrels per day.

U.S. ethanol inventories remained steady at 25.2 million barrels last week. Traders were expecting inventories of 25 million barrels.

Digging further into the EIA report, refinery utilization declined by 1.0 percentage points to 96.8% last week. Expectations were for a decline to 97.2%. U.S. gasoline demand increased by 247,000 barrels per day to 8.798 million barrels per day. Distillate demand fell last week, declining by 177,000 barrels per day to 3.501 million barrels per day.

Oil storage in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the WTI Crude Oil futures (/CL) contract, fell by 300,000 barrels last week to 21.5-million barrels.

The U.S. crude oil rig count rose by one last week and now totals 450 rigs during the reporting period ending September 11. That is up 8.2% from a year ago according to the Baker Hughes Crude Oil Rigs data.

This morning, U.S. stock index futures moved higher in the early hours with the S&P 500® (+0.67%), the Nasdaq-100® (+1.04%), the Russell 2000® (+0.75%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average® (+0.78%) all in the green. 

In Asia, major indexes closed higher, with Hang Seng (+1.18%) and the Shanghai (+0.97%) posting gains. The Nikkei was closed for a market holiday. 

European trading saw the FTSE (+0.92%), the CAC (+0.96%), and the DAX (+1.07%) higher by midday. 

Natural Gas futures (/NGV26) edged higher Friday (+0.13%) as a below-average EIA storage injection and warmer weather forecasts helped support late-season power demand. Still, gains were limited by strong U.S. production and a storage backdrop that remains above the five-year average.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 44 billion cubic feet (Bcf) injection into natural gas storage for the week ending September 11, bringing total working gas inventories to 3,298 Bcf. Stocks were 122 Bcf, or 3.6%, below the same week last year, but 118 Bcf, or 3.7%, above the five-year average. Regionally, gains in the East and Midwest more than offset declines in the Pacific and South Central regions, with South Central inventories slightly below their five-year average. For traders, the market continues to balance a still-comfortable storage cushion against weaker year-over-year inventories, firm production, and weather-driven demand expectations heading into the fall shoulder season.

Weather remains an important near-term driver, and the latest 8-to-14-day outlook from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, updated September 17, leans warmer across much of the country. The forecast favors above-normal temperatures for most of the U.S., with the highest probabilities centered across the Midwest and South, while parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northeast are expected to see near-normal temperatures. For natural gas traders, that warmer pattern could help keep some late-season cooling demand in play, especially in key population and power-burn regions. Still, the demand support may need to be meaningful to offset a comfortable storage backdrop, strong production, and inventories that remain above the five-year average.

Soybean futures (/ZSX26) traded lower Friday (–1.23%), with November futures pulling back from nearly three-year highs made earlier in the month. The pressure followed the USDA’s September WASDE, which raised the 2026 U.S. soybean crop estimate to 4.535 billion bushels and nudged yields higher to 52.8 bushels per acre, leaving traders with little fresh bullish news after the recent run-up. Profit-taking also weighed on the market as attention shifted to early harvest results, China demand, and South American planting conditions.

Cocoa futures (/CCZ26) finished the week sharply lower (–7.71%), with the lead month December futures falling to seven-week lows. The latest pressure has been tied to signs of more adequate near-term supplies, including stronger Ivory Coast port arrivals and rising exchange-monitored cocoa inventories. In addition, ICE cocoa inventories recently climbed to a two-year high. For traders, improving current supply has outweighed lingering concerns around Ghana’s next crop, West African crop quality, and disease risks, keeping downside momentum in focus.

Major economic reports, trading events, and news items that could potentially impact specific futures markets:

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (interest rates)

3-and 6-month T-bills 

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is scheduled to speak today.

New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms: 

• Ripple (/XRP)
• Micro Ripple (/MXP)
• 100 OZ Silver (/SIC)
• 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
• Solana (/SOL)
• Micro Solana (/MSL)

Visit the Schwab.com Futures Markets page to explore the wide variety of futures contracts available for trading through Charles Schwab Futures and Forex LLC.